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PROJECTIONS

The second aim of this report is to identify the number of potential jobs to be created, and where possible, in what areas - collection, sorting or reprocessing - when the data is applied to existing waste management policies. The following are a number of scenarios that arise.

Issues for further consideration

It is worth stating at the outset that there are many issues needing further consideration relating to the following projections. Firstly, and most importantly, when job creation is mentioned, this relates to a rough estimate in the number of positions that will be required to satisfy the increased recyclate tonnages. It is recognised that a certain amount of "job shift" or replacement will occur, most obviously from traditional waste management jobs in normal collection and landfill management to jobs in MRFs or material reprocessing. According to calculations made by community group recycling company Ealing Community Transport, for every ten people employed by the company, one job is lost in traditional waste management. Whether or not this is the case, this ratio will not necessarily continue to apply in future. The area of "job displacement" is worth exploring in the near future, as the Landfill Directive will force such job shift in the waste sector.

A second issue for consideration relates to employment figures in recycling collection. The potential for job creation in collection has not been factored into the "broad-brush" projections below. This is mostly because not enough representative data has been collected to apply to the increased tonnages of recyclates. If we consider that private waste management companies or community sector bodies will service more than one local authority, using the same collection vehicles and staff, then an increase in recyclates is not directly proportional to the number of staff required to collect this increase. Also, the efficiency levels of a collection crew will be affected by a change in waste collection profiles, as normal tonnages are reduced through an increase in recycling tonnages. For example, Eastleigh Borough Council was able to increase its recycling rate to 38% by moving from a weekly collection to a fortnightly collection alternating normal waste and recycling. This way, the collection vehicle fleet was divided for each type of collection, to eliminate the need to clean out the vehicle for the different collections and to eliminate contamination. This is different from Milton Keynes, where a weekly collection has continued and kerbside recycling has been added, resulting in an increase in jobs.

Another issue worthy of consideration to be added to the list, although this does not imply that this is the definitive list of provisos that apply, is that of technological advance. The data in this report represents a snapshot of employment, and the potential for future employment based on the composition of this snapshot. Technological advances in collection vehicles, MRF technology, reprocessing capital, as well as changes in design of products that end up in recycling schemes, will all influence the employee tonnage handling capacity. There is no definitive number that applies in all, the majority or even more than a handful of recycling schemes.

Having recognised the limitations to the following projections, let us consider them in their turn.

Scenario 1: UK National Recycling Target - 25% by 2000

Since 1995, the UK has had a national recycling target to reduce household waste by 25% on 1995 figures by 2000. At the end of 1999, the national average hovers around 8%. In the Government's draft waste strategy document "A way with waste", it recognises that the 2000 target will not be met and that it is committed to meeting it as soon as possible, or at least by 2005. These targets were aspirational, and remain so as they have yet to be backed up with legislation.

Using the figures detailed for sorting and reprocessing in the previous section, the following table shows the potential for job creation in these areas if the 25% target is met. Tonnages of materials available for recycling in 2000 are based upon the 1995 figure of 22 million tonnes of household waste arising, with a 3% annual increase to 2000. Reprocessing capacity has also been taken into account, and the capacity figures are those found in the Government's Forward Look document.

Table 12: Estimate of job creation on 25% recycling target by 2000

The above table does not incorporate potential new jobs in collection, since these cannot be segregated by material. According to figures supplied by Biffa Waste Services, the average waste collection round is staffed by 4 people (1 driver and 3 collectors) and can manage 4,000 tonnes of waste per year. If this figure alone, i.e. not taking into consideration the staff required for bring/drop-off and civic amenity sites, is grossed up to 5.5 million tonnes, the resulting potential job increase is 5,580.

Therefore, meeting the current 25% recycling target potentially could create 25,200 jobs.

Scenario 2: UK National Recycling Target - 30% by 2010

A way with waste also details a longer-term target of recycling 30% on 1995 figures by 2010, and up to 50% by 2015. These targets are also aspirational, since the draft strategy does not outline any intentions to introduce legislation to ensure that they are met.

The table below uses the same formulas to make projections on the potential for job creation.

Table 13: Estimate of job creation on 30% recycling target by 2010

If the same logic for collection used in the previous table is applied here, then this means a potential 9,280 jobs could be created in collection.

Therefore meeting the 30% recycling target potentially could create 45,000 jobs.

Scenario 3: Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulations

The DETR published a report earlier this year, entitled Forward Look¹⁷, to assist obligated producers of packaging and packaging waste and compliance schemes to meet the recovery and recycling targets set for 2001. The report states that, in order for the targets to be met, "collection from households will become increasingly important"¹⁸. The table below is used as a backdrop against which to project recycling growth and potential job creation. The projection is based upon the household-derived packaging waste, and considers the three outlooks from the document: 50 percent recovery, 15 percent recycling, and the materials organisations' forecasts. For all of these, recycling is the only form of activity considered in meeting the targets.

Table 14: Forward Look tonnage projections

 The table below represents the potential number of jobs to be created in reprocessing and sorting, based upon the proportion of tonnages for each material to come from household sources. The projections assume that potential job creation is extra to current tonnages - an average of the DoES and CIPFA figures - and current reprocessing capacity for the materials, as presented in Forward Look. This is not necessarily the case, as meeting reprocessing capacity in some of the materials would require more employment. Therefore, the projections are under-estimates on actual job creation.

Table 15: Processing and Sorting potential based upon Forward Look projections

According to the calculations in the above table, meeting the different forecasts from Forward Look would result in between 600 and 10,000 jobs in sorting and reprocessing. This relates only to the household waste-derived packaging proportion, and does not include collection.

Therefore, meeting the packaging waste recovery target forecasts potentially could create 10,000 jobs.

[¹⁷ Increasing Recovery and Recycling of Packaging Waste in the United Kingdom - The Challenge Ahead - A Forward Look for Planning Purposes; Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, June 1999

¹⁸ ibid, pg 22]

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